Embracing complexity to better forecast volcanic eruptions

An important task of volcanologists is predicting volcanic eruptions, which, however, is usually very unreliable. Scientists writing in Nature Reviews argue that in order to improve forecasts, it is necessary to study the entire magmatic system of volcanoes as a so-called complex system—similar to the way weather is studied. Improved models of volcanic systems could also help in the search for new deposits of raw materials.

A major goal of volcanology is to forecast volcanic eruptions. Eruptions come in many shapes and sizes. The largest eruptions result in massive collapse of the ground above the emptying magma chamber and in the emission of giant flows of hot gas and ashes are a threat for humanity with a global impact that can modify the Earth’s climate.

Fortunately, these large eruptions are extremely rare as there is an inverse relationship between eruption size and eruption frequency. However, even a small eruption can have an important impact locally and can lead to the destruction of a whole city. It is thus of paramount importance to forecast eruptions. To do that, volcanologists monitor volcanoes to detect eruption precursors. Precursors can be series of small earthquakes as the magma tries to make its way to the surface, deformations of the ground surface when the pressure in the magma chamber increases, and/or a change in the amount and composition of gas emission.

The problem is that precursors are not always followed by an eruption, probably because the magma stops before reaching the surface, while sometimes eruptions occur without being preceded by detected precursors as if the magma had been able to make its way to the surface silently and without being noticed.

In a Perspective paper published by Nature Reviews, an international team composed of three Earth scientists and of an expert in complex system sciences, and led by Catherine Annen from the Institute of Geophysics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, argues that to improve volcanic eruption forecasting, the magmatic system that underlays volcanoes must be approached and studied as a complex system. Indeed, volcanic eruptions are fed by a plumbing system made of a network of magma reservoirs and conduits and has all the characteristics of a complex system.

Complex systems behave in an unpredictable way because they are made of many elements that interact nonlinearly and operate on many timescales, from seconds to millions of years, and on many spatial scales from millimetres at the scale of a crystal to 10s of kilometres at the scale of the Earth’s crust. Because phenomena emerge from the interactions of the elements of the system, a complex system cannot be fully understood by studying its elements separately. In their paper, the authors propose that to progress in the understanding of magmatism and volcanism, Earth sciences use the approach of complex systems sciences to produce global, interconnected models of magmatic plumbing systems.

Earth Sciences could follow the example of climate and weather sciences and try to generate models based on complex system sciences that would improve short term forecasting and allow to build statistical scenario for the long-term evolution of the system. Such models could also be used to improve our ability to find the mineral deposits that are needed for the energy transition and that are produced by magmatic activity.

Contact:

Dr. Catherine Annen
Institute of Geophysics
Czech Academy of Sciences
annen@ig.cas.cz

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